Experts say that shots-on-goal commonly favour the club that loses. The logic is that since it is a game of luck, the difference between quality scoring chances and outcomes equalises. This is a misunderstanding of ice hockey. A team doesn’t get more awards if they take more quality shots or control the puck more. Ultimately, what matters is who wins.
If a team has won, even after taking fewer shots, the chances are that was their game plan from the beginning. It is not luck that helped them win despite less shots.
Ergo, for bettors, it is advised to place your probabilities on logical reasoning and not on luck. To do so, pay attention to the goaltenders. When their team is in control of the play, check if they don’t allow many shots. There have been many goalies who spent the first period of the play stopping even easy perimeter shots all because they didn’t want ‘cold legs.’
For the next Ice Hockey World Championship, here are a few tips for betting:
• Russia has not fallen out of favour entirely. Though it was in 2014 that they won the World Championship, they have made it to the finals two times since then. Moreover, they finished third in 2016 and 2017. Betting sides have stacked the odds at 4/1 that Russia will enter the semi-finals again and win it.
• Barring Sweden, Canada, and Russia, the odds of all other teams are stretched out. Finland comes after these three at 7/1. Then it is the Czech Republic followed by the USA. The odds for these are 10/1 and 12/1, respectively. No other team has a betting chance of winning the tournament this year.